Dear everyone who was rooting for New England and Green Bay to win last weekend: I get it. Had those two teams reached the Super Bowl, the matchup would have featured two superstar quarterbacks and a pair of powerhouse franchises.
But take heart. Patriots-Falcons should be much more interesting. We already know how defense wins championships, and that axiom extends well beyond the 1985 Bears.
Looking just at the past few years:
In 2016, Denver frustrated Carolina and Cam Newton so much that the quarterback couldn’t be bothered to attempt to recover a fumble late in the game.
In 2015, New England capped its victory with an interception in the end zone. (Should Seattle have run the ball? Perhaps, but it didn’t.)
In 2014, Seattle’s defense dismantled Peyton Manning and the Denver offense, notching a safety and forcing four turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown.
Then you get to 2013, which produced one of two Super Bowls in which both teams scored at least 30 points. Which made for fantastic drama, though it was slightly mitigated by the fact that Baltimore never trailed in its 34-31 win over San Francisco.
To this point we have never seen a true shootout in the Super Bowl in which the teams trade explosive plays, touchdowns and the lead throughout. Don’t football fans deserve that kind of climactic finish at least once (even if it’s to decide whether they hate it)? Look at the recent title games in college football—three of the past four have been showstopping shootouts, and it’s been impossible to tear oneself away.
Not that the Super Bowl typically is devoid of drama; I’m just looking for a specific type.
And there are plenty of reasons to believe 2017 will be the Super Bowl when records are smashed left and right.
The underdog Falcons got this far with their offensive firepower. They were second in total offense in the NFL in 2016 (415.8 yards per game), third in passing yards (295.3) and fifth in rushing yards (120.5). Meanwhile, the Patriots were fourth (386.2), fourth (269.2) and seventh (117.0), respectively.
You want quarterbacks? The Falcons’ Matt Ryan is the odds-on favorite to be the league MVP this season, with his 4,944 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns, both of which were second in the NFL this season. He had only seven interceptions, by the way.
And Tom Brady is Tom Brady, who despite being suspended for four games passed for 3,554 yards, 28 scores and a paltry two interceptions.
You want receivers? Atlanta’s Julio Jones missed two games this season yet still amassed the second-most receiving yards (1,409) in the league to go with six touchdowns. And New England’s Julian Edelman, all 5 feet 10 inches of him, had 98 catches for 1,106 yards.
Are running backs more your style? The Patriots’ LeGarrette Blount, who never met a camera he didn’t like, punished opposing defenses for 1,161 yards. Devonta Freeman chewed up 1,079 yards on the ground for the Falcons, and both teams like to hand the ball off to multiple backs when those two don’t have it going.
Speaking of odds, analysts at MyTopSportsbooks.com believe points will be in abundance as well:
Odds the game breaks the Super Bowl record for most combined points (75): 8/3
Odds the game breaks the Super Bowl record for most combined TDs (10): 7/3
Odds the game breaks the Super Bowl record for combined QB passing yards (649): 3/2
Odds the game breaks the Super Bowl record for combined QB touchdown passes (7): 2/1
For those unfamiliar with betting odds, all four of these indicate that those in the wagering universe believe there’s a fairly strong possibility these records will fall. Even if just half of them are broken, we’ll be looking at a Super Bowl classic, guaranteed.
If at this point you’re thinking, “But Chris, the Patriots’ defense has been stellar all year, and the Falcons have playmakers on that side of the ball, too,” you’re right. It’s more than possible that this will end up in the range of a 28-24 final, which still could be epic.
I’m just saying we’ve seen that script before, and if any two teams are going to tear it up, it’s these two.
SUPER BOWL LI
New England vs. Atlanta
(at NRG Stadium in Houston)
5:30 p.m. Feb. 5, Fox
@redeyesportschi | chsosa@redeyechicago.com
