With no winner emerging from Tuesday’s mayoral election, Chicagoans are in for six more weeks of campaigning that “might get ugly” as incumbent Rahm Emanuel and Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia jockey for votes, one political expert says.
Voters got a glimpse of the negative attack ads from Emanuel in the weeks leading up to the Feb. 24 election. Political consultant Delmarie Cobb, who opposes Emanuel but did not work for one specific challenger this election, speculates that Emanuel may try to smear Garcia before Garcia can define himself to voters. “I think it might get ugly,” she said.
If Emanuel goes that route, he’ll be walking a fine line, Cobb said, adding that he risks further reinforcing people’s negative views of him. Other experts say residents could see more political ads, greater voter outreach and a laser beam focus on the candidates thanks to a less crowded field leading to the April 7 runoff election between Emanuel and Garcia; in addition 19 aldermanic races are facing a runoff because no one candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.
On Tuesday, none of the five mayoral candidates emerged with more than 50 percent of the vote. So the two top vote-getters—Emanuel with 45.3 percent and Garcia with 33.9 percent—now will have to debate the issues and persuade the voters of unsuccessful candidates to back them, according to experts.
“Voters will have a much clearer idea of what they’re choosing,” said Dick Simpson, political science professor at UIC, who has contributed to the campaigns of Garcia and the defeated Bob Fioretti.
With only 464,000 Chicagoans casting ballots out of 1.4 million registered voters, experts expect a greater push to get more people to the polls by campaigning out in the streets and having warmer weather over the next month on their side.
Emanuel no longer looks invincible so there will be a bigger effort on both sides to win over more voters, Simpson said.
Going door to door and having personal contact, particularly on the Garcia side, will make a difference, he said. Garcia, who is less well-known, needs to double up on his efforts to contact voters and talk to them about their issues Simpson said.
“We’re looking forward to round two and a good set of debates, hopefully,” Garcia said Wednesday as reported by the Tribune.
Excitement is predicted to build for the mayor’s race, Cobb said. “People are going to be far more engaged and we realize victory is within reach. Everybody has to be all in and you cannot sit on sidelines these next six weeks,” she said.
On Tuesday, Emanuel made note of the work that’s ahead for him.
“For those who voted for someone else, I hope to earn your confidence and your support in the weeks to come,” he said. “We will get back out there, talking to our friends, families and neighbors as they make a critical choice about who has the strength, the leadership and ideas to move this great city forward.”
Here are three things voters can expect leading up to the April 7 runoff:
More ads: Emanuel still has a hefty war chest to use for ads, and voters could expect more negative ads like he launched at the tail end of the first round. Don Rose, a political consultant for Garcia’s campaign, said his campaign will lay out differences between the two candidates, which Simpson expects to be more like a comparison, not personal attacks.
Pursuit of the black vote: Candidates will be looking to court the African-American vote. Cobb said the black community represents the margin of victory. The morning after the election, Emanuel was back on the campaign trail, stopping by the 95th Street Red Line stop on the South Side. In the days leading up to the election, he appealed to black voters and used the Chicago visit of President Obama in an ad.
Political ploys: As incumbent, Emanuel has an advantage of announcing new programs and unveiling city projects in his role as mayor, attracting media attention. Despite announcements of the Red Line expansion and the presidential proclamation of the Pullman National Historic Landmark District, Rose said it wasn’t enough to win over voters. Look for the candidates to further debate on issues of crime and the city’s financial woes.
lvivanco@redeyechicago.com | @lvivanco
